The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that significant supply chain disruptions will continue to challenge the airline industry through 2025, driving up costs and hindering growth.
In its latest industry outlook, IATA detailed the extent of these challenges:
- Fleet Age: The average age of the global airline fleet has reached an unprecedented 14.8 years, a noticeable rise from the long-term average of 13.6 years recorded between 1990 and 2024.
- Aircraft Deliveries: Deliveries have dropped dramatically since the peak of 1,813 aircraft in 2018. Projections for 2024 estimate only 1,254 deliveries—a 30% decline from earlier forecasts. For 2025, deliveries are expected to increase to 1,802, but this figure remains significantly below the pre-pandemic projection of 2,293 aircraft. Further downward adjustments for 2025 appear increasingly likely.
- Order Backlog: The backlog of unfulfilled aircraft orders has surged to 17,000—the highest ever recorded. At the current rate of production, it would take 14 years to clear, compared to the six-year average backlog seen between 2013 and 2019. However, this timeline could improve if production rates accelerate.
- Parked Aircraft: Approximately 14% of the global fleet (roughly 5,000 aircraft) remains out of service, including Russian-built planes, as of December 2024. This figure, though an improvement from earlier periods, is still 4 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels (roughly 1,600 additional aircraft). Among these, 700 planes (2% of the global fleet) are grounded due to engine inspections. This situation is anticipated to persist well into 2025.
These ongoing challenges underscore the complex recovery path ahead for the aviation sector.
“Supply chain issues are frustrating every airline with a triple whammy on revenues, costs, and environmental performance. Load factors are at record highs and there is no doubt that if we had more aircraft they could be profitably deployed, so our revenues are being compromised. Meanwhile, the aging fleet that airlines are using has higher maintenance costs, burns more fuel, and takes more capital to keep it flying. And, on top of this, leasing rates have risen more than interest rates as competition among airlines intensified the scramble to find every way possible to expand capacity. This is a time when airlines need to be fixing their battered post-pandemic balance sheets, but progress is effectively capped by supply chain issues that manufacturers need to resolve,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
IATA highlighted two specific setbacks linked to ongoing supply chain disruptions:
- Stagnant Fuel Efficiency: Fuel efficiency, excluding the influence of load factors, remained flat at 0.23 liters per 100 available tonne kilometers (ATK) between 2023 and 2024. This marks a departure from the long-term trend (1990-2019) of annual fuel efficiency improvements, which typically ranged between 1.5% and 2.0%.
- Rising Leasing Costs: The soaring demand for leased aircraft has driven leasing rates for narrow-body planes to surge 20-30% above 2019 levels.
These challenges reflect the mounting pressure supply chain issues continue to place on the airline industry.
“The entire aviation sector is united in its commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But when it comes to the practicality of actually getting there, airlines are left bearing the biggest burden. The supply chain issues are a case in point. Manufacturers are letting down their airline customers and that is having a direct impact of slowing down airlines’ efforts to limit their carbon emissions. If the aircraft and engine manufacturers could sort out their issues and keep their promises, we’d have a more fuel-efficient fleet in the air,” said Walsh.
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